Oval Updates

Solo build · 2026 – present

A single Trump post can move billions in minutes. Oval Updates watches everything he and the White House put out, from Truth Social posts to press releases, and when something market-relevant lands it sends a Telegram alert with the affected tickers, a one-line trader's take, an estimated move probability, and a directional confidence.

The problem

The posts that matter arrive at all hours, buried in a firehose of ceremonial messages, political grievances, and rhetoric irrelevant to the market. They're easy to miss and hard to act on quickly.

What an alert looks like

Alert: Trump threatens to cancel Boeing Air Force One deal
Source: Truth Social
Est. relevance: 73% (company action)
Sentiment: Bearish
Context: Trump attacked Boeing over Air Force One cost overruns and floated
         canceling the contract.
Recommendation: Watch BA for downside on contract-risk headlines; attacks like
                this have historically been short-lived.

Tickers:
• $BA (Boeing) — Directly named; contract-cancellation threat.

Two numbers, not one

Est. relevance asks whether the post moves anything at all. Directional confidence asks whether we know which way, given a move.

Calibrated on 132 labeled events

I hand-labeled 132 historical Trump and White House events with what the market actually did, by category, and derived per-category base rates that anchor the model's scoring rather than letting it guess.

The pipeline

Truth Social ┐
WH actions   ├─▶ trigger.dev (every 15 min) ─▶ Gemini (2-stage) ─▶ score & gate ─▶ Telegram
WH news      ┘        dedupe, no database        relevance + direction

Two stages, for cost as much as accuracy. A gate model scores every post and decides alert-or-skip, tuned for recall so it almost never misses a real mover. The analyst (Gemini 2.5 Pro) runs only on the ~25% that survive, producing the tickers and direction in the alert body.

Stack: TypeScript (ESM, Node 22) · trigger.dev v4 · Google Gemini (2.5-flash-lite gate + 2.5-pro analyst) · fast-xml-parser · Telegram Bot API.

Honest limitations

Estimating market direction is hard and unreliable. Oval Updates acts as an alert, rather than a trade signal.